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Ramos Martín, Emma | |||
Aquest document és un/a article, creat/da en: 2014 | |||
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In certain countries, the suicide mortality supposes a problem of public health. In Spain, serveral studies have analyzed if
the number of suicides has been modified due to the economic crisis, as a consequence of unemployment, low incomes, poverty,
social inequality, cuts in social services, health or education, concluding that in Spain the suicide attemps have not increased since
the years before the economic crisis, not being able to appreciate inmediate effects for the health and not being able to prove a causal
connection between financial crisis and suicide. Nevertheless, other authors point out that there is an important relation between
suicides and young age aswell as elders, a poor health and depression, that can be increased due to the economic crisis. In opposite,
out of Spain, a study concludes that there exists a relation beween the recent suicide cases in the English regi...
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In certain countries, the suicide mortality supposes a problem of public health. In Spain, serveral studies have analyzed if
the number of suicides has been modified due to the economic crisis, as a consequence of unemployment, low incomes, poverty,
social inequality, cuts in social services, health or education, concluding that in Spain the suicide attemps have not increased since
the years before the economic crisis, not being able to appreciate inmediate effects for the health and not being able to prove a causal
connection between financial crisis and suicide. Nevertheless, other authors point out that there is an important relation between
suicides and young age aswell as elders, a poor health and depression, that can be increased due to the economic crisis. In opposite,
out of Spain, a study concludes that there exists a relation beween the recent suicide cases in the English regions with higher
unemployment rates as a consequence of the economic crisis. Relating the british study and due to the fact that the spanish authors
has mostly concentrate their efforts on determining the economic crisis influence on suicides, we try to analize, from a broader point
of view, the possible existence of a casual relation between the main macroeconomic indicators and the suicide rates in Spain. For
this purpose, the methodology used has been to extract data relating demography, causes of death (suicide and self-inflicted injury),
GDP, CPI and unemployment in complete historical series sufficiently representative so as to be considered as sampling, between
1980 and 2012, analyzing the evolution of the mentioned variables as well as the statistical distribution and their possible correlation.
Furthermore, we develope a gender distribution for the purpose of the determination whether differentiated behaviours exists.
Following the analysis, in conformity with the consulted authors, the number of suicides seems to be independent of unemployment
rate increase or, in any case, seems that this increase is inversely related to the number of suicides. Nevertheless, the studied
macroeconomic variable that shows a higher correlation coefficient with regard to the suicide rate is GDP, with indeces that show
that the evolution of the male suicide rate is highly related with GDP evolution and, on the contrary, the number of women's suicides
represents a continued evolution and even slightly linear independently of the macroeconomic variables consulted. In terms of
carrying out a prognosis about the total number of suicides, it is proposed to establish on the one hand, the male number of suicides
according to the forecast for the development of the GDP and, on the other, the women number of suicides in linear geometric
progression with the coefficients obtained.La mortalidad por suicidio constituye un problema de salud pública en ciertos países. En España, numerosos estudios han
analizado si el número de suicidios se ha visto alterado con ocasión de la crisis económica como consecuencia del desempleo, los
escasos ingresos, la pobreza, la desigualdad, los recortes en servicios sociales, salud o educación, concluyendo que en España los
intentos de suicidio no han aumentado desde antes de la crisis económica, no apreciándose efectos inmediatos para la salud y no
pudiendo probar que exista una conexión causal entre crisis financiera y suicidio. Otros autores sin embargo, observan una relación
importante entre suicidios y una edad más joven así como ancianos, mal estado de salud y depresión, pudiendo ésta verse
incrementada por la crisis económica. En contraposición, fuera de España, un estudio concluye que existe una relación entre los casos
recientes de suicidio en las regiones inglesas con mayores tasas de desempleo consecuencia de la crisis económica. A colación del
estudio británico y dado que los autores españoles prioritariamente se han centrado en determinar la influencia de la crisis económica
sobre los suicidios, se pretende analizar con una mayor amplitud la posible existencia de una relación causal entre los principales
indicadores macroeconómicos y el índice de suicidios en España. Para ello, la metodología empleada ha consistido en la extracción
de datos relativos a demografía, causa de la muerte (suicidio y lesiones auto infligidas), PIB, IPC y desempleo en series históricas
completas suficientemente representativas para considerarlas como muestreo, comprendidas entre 1980 y 2012, analizando tanto la
evolución de estas variables como la distribución estadística y su posible correlación. Se realiza además una distribución por sexos
con objeto de determinar la existencia de comportamientos diferenciados. Tras el análisis efectuado, en concordancia con los autores
consultados, el número de suicidios parece ser independiente del crecimiento de la tasa de desempleo o en todo caso, parece que el
incremento de ésta está inversamente relacionado con el número de suicidios. No obstante, la variable macroeconómica consultada
que presenta un mayor coeficiente de correlación respecto de la tasa de suicidio es el PIB, con índices que muestran que la evolución
del número de suicidios de varones está altamente relacionada con la evolución del PIB y por el contrario, el número de suicidios de
mujeres presenta una evolución constante e incluso ligeramente lineal independientemente de las variables macroeconómicas
consultadas. A efectos de realizar un pronóstico sobre el número de suicidios totales se propone determinar, por una parte, el número
de suicidios de varones en función de las previsiones de evolución del PIB y por otra, el número de suicidios de mujeres en
progresión lineal geométrica con los coeficientes obtenidos.
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