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Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region

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Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region

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dc.contributor.author	Gómez Doménech, Igor
dc.contributor.author	Estrela Navarro, María José
dc.contributor.author	Caselles Miralles, Vicente
dc.date.accessioned	2016-05-13T12:21:00Z
dc.date.available	2016-05-13T12:21:00Z
dc.date.issued	2014
dc.identifier.citation	Gómez Doménech, Igor Estrela Navarro, María José Caselles Miralles, Vicente 2014 Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region Natural Hazards 70 2 1055 1076
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10550/53604
dc.description.abstract	Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Mediterráneo Foundation. This operational system is run twice a day, and both runs have a 3-day forecast range. To carry out the verification of the model in this work, the information generated by the system has been broken into individual simulation days for a specific daily run of the model. Moreover, we have analysed the summer forecast period from 1 June to 31 August for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The results indicate good agreement between observed and simulated maximum temperatures, with RMSE in general near 2 °C both for coastal and inland stations. For this parameter, the model shows a negative bias around −1.5 °C in the coast, while the opposite trend is observed inland. In addition, RAMS also shows good results in forecasting minimum temperatures for coastal locations, with bias lower than 1 °C and RMSE below 2 °C. However, the model presents some difficulties for this parameter inland, where bias higher than 3 °C and RMSE of about 4 °C have been found. Besides, there is little difference in both temperatures forecasted within the two daily RAMS cycles and that RAMS is very stable in maintaining the forecast performance at least for three forecast days.
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.relation.ispartof	Natural Hazards, 2014, vol. 70, num. 2, p. 1055-1076
dc.subject	Ciències de la terra
dc.subject	Temperatura atmosfèrica
dc.subject	Climatologia
dc.title	Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region
dc.type	journal article	es_ES
dc.date.updated	2016-05-13T12:21:01Z
dc.identifier.doi	10.1007/s11069-013-0861-1
dc.identifier.idgrec	103540
dc.rights.accessRights	open access	es_ES