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Quantifying unpredictability: A multiple-model approach based on satellite imagery data from Mediterranean ponds.

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Quantifying unpredictability: A multiple-model approach based on satellite imagery data from Mediterranean ponds.

dc.contributor.author	Franch Gras, Lluis
dc.contributor.author	García Roger, Eduardo Moisés
dc.contributor.author	Franch Gras, Belén
dc.contributor.author	Carmona Navarro, María José
dc.contributor.author	Serra Galindo, Manuel
dc.date.accessioned	2017-12-11T09:41:55Z
dc.date.available	2017-12-11T09:41:55Z
dc.date.issued	2017
dc.identifier.citation	Franch Gras, Lluis García Roger, Eduardo Moisés Franch Gras, Belén Carmona Navarro, María José Serra Galindo, Manuel 2017 Quantifying unpredictability: A multiple-model approach based on satellite imagery data from Mediterranean ponds. Plos One 12 (11) e0187958
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10550/63505
dc.description.abstract	Fluctuations in environmental parameters are increasingly being recognized as essential features of any habitat. The quantification of whether environmental fluctuations are prevalently predictable or unpredictable is remarkably relevant to understanding the evolutionary responses of organisms. However, when characterizing the relevant features of natural habitats, ecologists typically face two problems: (1) gathering long-term data and (2) handling the hard-won data. This paper takes advantage of the free access to long-term recordings of remote sensing data (27 years, Landsat TM/ETM+) to assess a set of environmental models for estimating environmental predictability. The case study included 20 Mediterranean saline ponds and lakes, and the focal variable was the water-surface area. This study first aimed to produce a method for accurately estimating the water-surface area from satellite images. Saline ponds can develop salt-crusted areas that make it difficult to distinguish between soil and water. This challenge was addressed using a novel pipeline that combines band ratio water indices and the short near-infrared band as a salt filter. The study then extracted the predictable and unpredictable components of variation in the water-surface area. Two different approaches, each showing variations in the parameters, were used to obtain the stochastic variation around a regular pattern with the objective of dissecting the effect of assumptions on predictability estimations. The first approach, which is based on Colwell's predictability metrics, transforms the focal variable into a nominal one. The resulting discrete categories define the relevant variations in the water-surface area. In the second approach, we introduced General Additive Model (GAM) fitting as a new metric for quantifying predictability. Both approaches produced a wide range of predictability for the studied ponds. Some model assumptions-which are considered very different a priori-had minor effects, whereas others produced predictability estimations that showed some degree of divergence. We hypothesize that these diverging estimations of predictability reflect the effect of fluctuations on different types of organisms. The fluctuation analysis described in this manuscript is applicable to a wide variety of systems, including both aquatic and nonaquatic systems, and will be valuable for quantifying and characterizing predictability, which is essential within the expected global increase in the unpredictability of environmental fluctuations. We advocate that a priori information for organisms of interest should be used to select the most suitable metrics estimating predictability, and we provide some guidelines for this approach.
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.relation.ispartof	Plos One, 2017, num. 12 (11), p. e0187958
dc.subject	Ecologia aquàtica
dc.subject	Teledetecció
dc.title	Quantifying unpredictability: A multiple-model approach based on satellite imagery data from Mediterranean ponds.
dc.type	journal article	es_ES
dc.date.updated	2017-12-11T09:41:55Z
dc.identifier.doi	10.1371/journal.pone.0187958
dc.identifier.idgrec	121159
dc.rights.accessRights	open access	es_ES