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Are There Any Parameters Missing in the Mathematical Models Applied in the Process of Spreading COVID-19?

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Are There Any Parameters Missing in the Mathematical Models Applied in the Process of Spreading COVID-19?

dc.contributor.author	Boselli, Pietro Marco
dc.contributor.author	Basagni, Massimo
dc.contributor.author	Soriano del Castillo, José Miguel
dc.date.accessioned	2022-03-22T13:39:00Z
dc.date.available	2022-03-22T13:39:00Z
dc.date.issued	2021
dc.identifier.citation	Boselli, Pietro Marco Basagni, Massimo Soriano del Castillo, José Miguel 2021 Are There Any Parameters Missing in the Mathematical Models Applied in the Process of Spreading COVID-19? Biology-Basel 10 2 165
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10550/81986
dc.description.abstract	On 11 March 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). As of 12.44 GMT on 15 January 2021, it has produced 93,640,296 cases and 2,004,984 deaths. The use of mathematical modelling was applied in Italy, Spain, and UK to help in the prediction of this pandemic. We used equations from general and reduced logistic models to describe the epidemic development phenomenon and the trend over time. We extracted this information from the Italian Ministry of Health, the Spanish Ministry of Health, Consumer Affairs, and Social Welfare, and the UK Statistics Authority from 3 February to 30 April 2020. We estimated that, from the seriousness of the phenomenon, the consequent pathology, and the lethal outcomes, the COVID-19 trend relate to the same classic laws that govern epidemics and their evolution. The curve d(t) helps to obtain information on the duration of the epidemic phenomenon, as its evolution is related to the efficiency and timeliness of the system, control, diagnosis, and treatment. In fact, the analysis of this curve, after acquiring the data of the first three weeks, also favors the advantage to formulate forecast hypotheses on the progress of the epidemic.
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.relation.ispartof	Biology-Basel, 2021, vol. 10, num. 2, p. 165
dc.subject	Biologia Models matemàtics
dc.subject	Epidemiologia
dc.subject	Virus
dc.title	Are There Any Parameters Missing in the Mathematical Models Applied in the Process of Spreading COVID-19?
dc.type	journal article	es_ES
dc.date.updated	2022-03-22T13:39:00Z
dc.identifier.doi	10.3390/biology10020165
dc.identifier.idgrec	150670
dc.rights.accessRights	open access	es_ES