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Estimation of the combined effects of ageing and seasonality on mortality risk: An application to Spain

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Estimation of the combined effects of ageing and seasonality on mortality risk: An application to Spain

dc.contributor.author	Pavía Miralles, José Manuel
dc.contributor.author	Lledó Benito, Josep
dc.date.accessioned	2022-03-29T11:52:58Z
dc.date.available	2022-03-30T04:45:05Z
dc.date.issued	2021	es_ES
dc.identifier.citation	Pavía, J.M. & Lledó, J.(2021). J R Stat Soc Series A, 1– 26, Wiley	es_ES
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10550/82078
dc.description.abstract	Despite the overwhelming evidence that shows the persistence of intra-annual variations on demographic events (deaths, birth dates and migration flows), life tables are computed and provided on an annual basis. This paper develops a new estimator for estimating sub-annual death rates that, considering the exact moment of occurrence (exact age and day) of events, concurrently accounts for ageing and calendar fluctuations. This paper also shows how modelling the intra-annual variations of death rates, through specific seasonal–ageing indexes, can be used as a tool for constructing new sub-annual tables from annual tables. This new methodology is exemplified using a real database of Spain made up of 186 million demographic events (1.5 million of which are deaths), from which seasonal–ageing indexes are estimated and conclusions drawn. First, seasonal effects are, as a rule, stronger than ageing effects. For a given integer age, season has a higher impact on increasing or decreasing the average risk of death at that age than the actual age of the exposed-to-risk. Second, the intensity of the effects varies among seasons and age-quarters. Third, neither seasonal nor ageing effects are age-stationary. Their impact, be it to varying degrees, intensifies as people get older. Fourth, there is interaction between seasonal and ageing effects. In short, life expectancies and probabilities of dying/surviving not only depend on people's age, but also on when their birthday falls within the year. This has implications, for instance, in managing pension systems or for insurance companies.	es_ES
dc.language.iso	en	es_ES
dc.subject	big microdata	es_ES
dc.subject	insurance	es_ES
dc.subject	mortality rates	es_ES
dc.subject	pension systems	es_ES
dc.subject	quarterlylife tables	es_ES
dc.subject	seasonal–ageing indexes	es_ES
dc.title	Estimation of the combined effects of ageing and seasonality on mortality risk: An application to Spain	es_ES
dc.type	journal article	es_ES
dc.subject.unesco	UNESCO::CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS	es_ES
dc.identifier.doi	10.1111/rssa.12769	es_ES
dc.accrualmethod	S	es_ES
dc.embargo.terms	0 days	es_ES