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A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis model to predict bank bailouts: a study of the spanish financial system

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A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis model to predict bank bailouts: a study of the spanish financial system

dc.contributor.author	Bustos Contell, Elisabeth
dc.contributor.author	Climent Serrano, Salvador
dc.contributor.author	Labatut Serer, Gregorio
dc.date.accessioned	2023-07-27T09:02:18Z
dc.date.available	2023-07-28T04:45:06Z
dc.date.issued	2021	es_ES
dc.identifier.citation	Elisabeth Bustos-Contell, Salvador Climent-Serrano & Gregorio Labatut Serer (2021) A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis model to predict bank bailouts: a study of the Spanish financial system, Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 34:1, 2555-2571	es_ES
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10550/88811
dc.description.abstract	This paper examines the restructuring of the Spanish financial system. This study is justified by the massive economic and social impact of this process in Spain. Based on the annual accounts and the annual reports of Spanish credit institutions, a model was created to predict the possibility of bank failure or bailout. The variables were selected following a review of the literature. They included the legal form of the credit institution (savings bank versus bank), leverage, real estate investment, gross operating margin, staff costs and non-performing loans. Two variables that had not previously been used in studies of this type were also included in the model: risk-weighted assets and coverage (as part of the provisions for non-performing loans). Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was used for the analysis. Use of fsQCA is another novel aspect of this study. This technique has never been used to predict corporate bankruptcy or the failure of credit institutions. Proposals were made and tested using data on Spanish banks and savings banks for the year 2010, a critical year for the Spanish financial system. The results yield several interesting conclusions. First, greater leverage increases the probability of survival, contrary to the opinion of most scholars. This result shows that the problem facing Spanish credit institutions was the closure of international markets, not the level of debt. Another key conclusion is that financial institutions with higher staff costs have a greater chance of survival. Therefore, the widespread policy of reducing human resource costs should be reconsidered. Finally, the risk-weighted assets measure offers an excellent predictor of failure of credit institutions, as well as providing other benefits, which substantially increase the value of this measure	es_ES
dc.language.iso	en	es_ES
dc.publisher	Taylor & Francis	es_ES
dc.subject	bankruptcy	es_ES
dc.subject	bank failure	es_ES
dc.subject	insolvency	es_ES
dc.subject	bailout	es_ES
dc.subject	risk-weighted assets	es_ES
dc.subject	staffcosts	es_ES
dc.subject	leverage	es_ES
dc.title	A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis model to predict bank bailouts: a study of the spanish financial system	es_ES
dc.type	journal article	es_ES
dc.subject.unesco	UNESCO::CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS	es_ES
dc.identifier.doi	10.1080/1331677X.2020.1833746	es_ES
dc.accrualmethod	S	es_ES
dc.embargo.terms	0 days	es_ES
dc.type.hasVersion	VoR	es_ES
dc.rights.accessRights	open access	es_ES